November 16, 2017

If you were only to read one thing…

FT – S&P says Venezuela is in default on sovereign debt – Edward White and Hudson Lockett 11/13

  • “Standard & Poor’s has declared that Venezuela is in default after it missed two interest payments and following a meeting in Caracas that left investors with little notion of how a default on its $60bn debt pile can be avoided.”
  • “S&P, which is the first rating agency to say the country is in default, said on Tuesday that Caracas had failed to make $200m in coupon payments for global bonds due in 2019 and 2024 within the 30-calendar-day grace period.”
  • “The agency said it had downgraded the issue ratings on those bonds to D from CC and cut the country’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to selective default, or SD, from CC.”
  • “’Our CreditWatch negative reflects our opinion that there is a one-in-two chance that Venezuela could default again within the next three months,’ said S&P.”

Perspective

Bloomberg – Trump Is Shattering His Own Tweet Records – Brandon Kochkodin 11/13

FT – India’s Ambanis top Asia family rich list – Kiran Stacey 11/14

WSJ – Daily Shot: Credit Suisse – Global Wealth Report 11-14

Worthy Insights / Opinion Pieces / Advice

Bloomberg – Yale’s Swensen Sees Low Volatility as ‘Profoundly Troubling’ – Janet Lorin and Christine Harper 11/14

Bloomberg Businessweek – The Global Economy Looks Good for 2018 (Unless Somebody Does Something Dumb) – Peter Coy 11/2

Markets / Economy

WSJ – AB InBev Switches U.S. Boss as  It Struggles With Sales Slump – Jennifer Maloney 11/13

CNBC – Millennials lose taste for dining out, get blamed for puzzling restaurant trend – Patti Domm 11/14

WSJ – Small IPOs Are Dying. That’s Good – James Mackintosh 11/13

Real Estate

Investment News – Cole Capital, once part of a company coveted by Nicholas Schorsch, is being sold – Bruce Kelly 11/13

Energy

iea – World Energy Outlook 2017 – Global shifts in the energy system 11/14

Finance

WSJ – Daily Shot: Bitcoin 11/13

  • “Bitcoin has bounced off the lows but remains volatile.”

Europe

FT – Sweden’s big banks call an end to decades-long housing boom – Martin Arnold and Richard Milne 11/13

  • “Sweden’s decades-long housing market boom is over, two of the country’s bank bosses admit, while trying to reassure investors that their institutions will not suffer a painful hangover of defaults even if the cheap mortgage-fueled party is finished.”
  • “Swedish house prices have been red hot, rising almost 6% a year on average since 2007, while a surge in household indebtedness from 1.2 to 1.6 times disposable income has attracted intense scrutiny from regulators.”
  • “Swedish house prices fell 1.5% in September, the first decline for several years, reflecting the impact of measures introduced by regulators to constrain riskier mortgage lending as well as a recent increase in the supply of new homes.”

Japan

WSJ – Daily Shot: Bank of Japan Balance Sheet as % of GDP 11/14

South America

FT – Russia agrees to restructure $3.2bn of Venezuelan debt held by Moscow – Henry Foy 11/15

WSJ – The Class of 1994, Venezuela’s Golden Generation, Is Fleeing the Country – Ryan Dube 11/14

  • More than “…two million…Venezuelans…have left the country since 1999, the year Mr. Chavez gained power, according to Tomas Paez, a Venezuelan immigration expert. That exodus is roughly twice the number who fled Cuba in the two decades after the revolution there, and is set to worsen.”

WSJ – Default in Venezuela: What’s Next – Julie Wernau 11/14

  • “Venezuela has been falling behind on debt payments in its prolonged economic crisis. Some payments have come late. Others haven’t arrived at all. The South American country has said it wants to restructure its remaining debt, which analysts put as high as $150 billion. But observers say Venezuela’s debt crisis could be one of the most complicated in history.”
  • “Cash-strapped Venezuela and its state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, have been putting off making interest payments on their debt, taking advantage of 30-day grace periods to save money.”

FT – Venezuela: what happens now after official default – Robin Wigglesworth 11/14

  • “The most likely outcome, investors and analysts say, is a protracted period of financial limbo with a restructuring precluded by US sanctions and Venezuela facing a barrage of lawsuits that will tie it up for years to come.”

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