July 29 – August 4, 2016 – the janus observer

Insurers having to rethink their business model. India makes a giant leap forward in tax reform.

Headlines

FT – Venezuela’s armed forces tighten grip as food crisis grows 7/29. Maduro has handed over more powers to General Padrino Lopez making him “the most powerful man in Venezuela.”
Economist – The Middle East is baking: More than war even, climate change is making the region uninhabitable 8/1. Up until the 1970s Basra’s (Iraqi port city) climate was like southern Europe’s, but in July the temperature reached 53.9⁰C (129.02⁰F) and by the end of the century the average temperature could be up by 7⁰C or 44.6⁰F.
WSJ – Why All Italians Feel Monte dei Paschi’s Pain 8/1. The good news, troubled Italian bank Banca Monte dei Pasci di Sienna found buyers for €7bn of bad loans. The bad news other holders of bad Italian debt, the buyers picked up the debt at 27% of face value.
Bloomberg – General Growth Sells Stake in Las Vegas Mall for $1.25 Billion 8/1. GGP just sold a 50% stake in its Fashion Show Mall on the Las Vegas Strip for $1.25 billion.
NYT – Body Count Rises as Philippine President Wages War on Drugs 8/2. The body count is up to 420 since President Duterte has been elected.
WSJ – Bank of England Cuts Key Interest Rate to New Low 8/4. In case you’re keeping track, the current rate is the lowest rate in the Bank of England’s 322-year history.

Briefs

Attracta Mooney of the Financial Times highlighted that Sovereign wealth funds are unlikely to be a meaningful source of equity (rescue funds) the next time a downturn comes around.

“Sovereign wealth funds are investing less money directly than at any time in the past five years. This marks the end of a safety net whereby state-backed vehicles mopped up assets in times of market stress, according to research.”
“The Bocconi report found that state funds invested €48bn directly last year, down 57% from €112bn in 2008.”
“Given the low oil-price environment and lower revenues for oil producers, [state funds] no longer have the cash positions to get into the markets once they correct.” – Sven Behrendt, managing director of GeoEconomica, a consultancy

The Economist pointed to the need for better data on the long-term effects of dirty air within cities.

“What if all Londoners, no matter how young or frail, smoked for at least six years? In effect, they already do. The city’s air pollution exacts an equivalent toll on each resident, cutting short the lives of nearly 10,000 people each year and damaging the lungs, hearts and brains of children.”
Bottom line, more needs to be done to track and publish long-term air-quality indexes similar to the existing short-term gauges that people and cities can utilize to alter behaviors and make informed life choices.

Jonathan Wheatley of the Financial Times called attention to the demand that Emerging Market bonds have seen as the world has become devoid of ‘safe’ income yielding products.
- “With an estimated 30% of global government debt now offering yields of less than zero, he (Daniel Senecal, head of credit research at Newfleet Asset Management) says traditionally conservative investors are being pushed into new areas.”
- “If you’re a pensions guy you have to do something. With German 10-years at zero, you need to change your mindset. Your whole view migrates into US high-yield and EMs.” – Daniel Senecal
- Geez it’s a tough world to invest in right now…

Special Reports

Graphics

WSJ – Why Bank of Japan Dipped Into Bag of Small Tricks 7/29

Visual Capitalist – The Rise and Fall of Yahoo 7/29

Economist – Comparing urban air pollution 8/1

FT – Japan launches $45bn stimulus package – Robin Harding 8/2

FT – Emerging market bonds lure investors seeking yield – Jonathan Wheatley 8/2

WSJ – Bank of England Cuts Key Interest Rate to New Low 8/4

Featured

*Note: bold emphasis is mine, italic sections are from the articles.

Insurers: Forced to dig deep. Oliver Ralph and Alistair Gray. Financial Times. 1 Aug. 2016.

“Insurers globally are having to come to terms with the idea of ‘lower for longer’ interest rates, making deep changes to business models that had been unaltered for decades. Whereas previously they might have clung to the hope that higher rates were around the corner, there is a realization that the industry has to do things differently – from investing in assets that might once have been seen as too risky, to experimenting with new products.”

As to how much cash are we talking about, PwC estimates that by 2020, insurance companies will manage about $35tn worth of assets.

“Traditionally, much of that has gone to relatively safe homes, such as bonds. At the end of last year, bonds made up about 68% of US property insurers’ total investments and 76% of life insurers’, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. When those bonds offered decent yields there was no problem. Insurers could fulfill promises to customers and still have plenty left for shareholders.”

But “by last year the net yield on US life insurers’ overall invested assets had fallen to 4.7% – about a quarter lower than 2002 levels.”

Hence, the performance of US life insurance companies has tended to move in tandem with the 10-year Treasury yield…

In regard to attaining higher returns, insurers can either take on higher risks or tie up cash for longer. “Many prefer the latter, investing in more illiquid assets such as property. UK insurer Aviva says 80% of the new investments it is making to back its annuity business will be in long-duration assets rather than traditional gilts or corporate bonds.”

“Infrastructure investments are particularly popular as they offer the long-term cash flows life insurers need to back their promises. Germany’s Allianz, for example, is one of the main backers of London’s £4.2bn supersewer.”

Consider the alternative…“Nobody likes to invest at negative yields but life insurers have so much cash that they need to invest, and they need to do something with it.” – James Peagam, head of global insurance solutions at JPMorgan Asset Management

As to the other side of the equation, ‘new products’ or raising premiums, this is already underway.

“Life assurance customers may see the biggest changes. For decades, the industry has offered savings and retirement products that offer guaranteed minimum returns. In the future, these may no longer be on offer.”

“This would be a major shift. In the US, products with guarantees account for 60-80% of the US life insurers’ balance sheets, Moody’s estimates. The average outstanding guarantee is returning between 2% and 4%.”

The replacement product: “unit-linked products. These make no promises: customers’ investments simply rise and fall with the markets. They are similar to traditional asset management products.”

Which of course puts them in direct competition with traditional asset managers that are facing a major business model challenge from low-cost index fund companies like Vanguard and BlackRock.

“As Jon Hocking, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, points out, the unit-linked model distances insurers from their customers. ‘The risk is that you open Pandora’s box and the industry loses its dominant position in the long term savings market. The customer chooses between products and the only distinction is the fund performance” and fees…

So which insurers are under particular pressure, in the US these are the companies specializing in long-term care (“low interest rates have exacerbated the problems caused by rising treatment costs”) and those that have sold ‘universal life’ protection (“policies that combine death benefits with tax-advantaged savings”).

“Transamerica, a large US provider, is being sued by the advocacy group Consumer Watchdog on behalf of policyholders who bought coverage decades ago. It said consumers who had been offered guaranteed interest of at least 5.5% a year had been stung by premium increases of almost 40%.”

India’s economy: One nation, one tax. Economist. 4 Aug. 2016.

India just passed a new goods-and-services tax (GST) that will “unify the country’s 29 states and 1.3 billion people into a common market for the first time.”

“Few countries are fiddlier than India when it comes to paying taxes; the World Bank ranks it 157th out of 189 for simplicity… Because the rates differ between states, making stuff in one and selling it in another is often harder within India than it is in trade blocs such as NAFTA or the European Union.”

“That should change with the GST, essentially an agreement among all states to charge the same (still to be decided) indirect tax rates.”

“Better yet, the GST will be due on the basis of value added. That avoids businesses being thwacked by taxes on the entire value of the products they buy and sell rather than the value they create – a situation that often made it cheaper to import stuff rather than make it locally. Just as importantly, by requiring businesses to document the prices at which they buy inputs and sell products, it will force vast swathes of the economy into the reach of the taxman.”

The tax is supposed to be enacted in April 2017. There is a lot to be buttoned up by then and chances that exceptions will be inserted; however, it is good step forward and has the chance of boosting India’s GDP by 1-2 percentage points.

Other Interesting Articles

The Economist

Bloomberg – Rich Investors Fear Fortunes Will Fade While They’re Playing Golf 7/28

Bloomberg – Fragile U.S. Economy Now Facing a Slowdown in Building Boom 7/31

Bloomberg – Allianz Buys Stake in Manhattan’s 10 Hudson Yards Skyscraper 8/1

Bloomberg – Where First-Time Homebuyers Can Go Big 8/2

Fast Co. Design – An Exclusive Look At Airbnb’s First Foray Into Urban Planning 8/2

FT – The US student debt bubble is a study in financial dysfunction 7/29

FT – Ant’s Alipay challenges China Unionpay’s dominance 7/31

FT – US $18bn credit card debt spree sparks fears 7/31

FT – WTI closes in bear market 8/1

FT – Microsoft sells $20bn of debt to fund LinkedIn Deal 8/2