April 15 – April 21, 2016

The Wall Street Oil Crash in charts. Chinese $3tn bond market not looking so good.

This week is a very graphic heavy week, just happens that way sometimes.  Additionally, I want to call attention to a report that me and my business partner put out for our real estate development and management business (FP Honolulu Condominium Market Insights) in the Special Reports section.  While it is geared to those interested in the Honolulu Condo market, there is a good deal of text and charts that are pertinent to macro issues at large.  Enjoy.

Headlines

Briefs

    • “Driving all this activity: easy money. Real interest rates have fallen. And nominal GDP grew faster than real GDP for the first time in five quarters, which in theory makes servicing debt easier.”
    • “What should trouble investors is that while China’s economic activity is ticking up, debt is piling up faster. The stock of total financing in the economy, including bond issuance as part of a local government bailout program, rose 15.8% in March from a year ago, the fastest rate since mid-2014. With nominal GDP growing 7.2%, Beijing’s plans to deleverage the economy continue to be overwhelmed by the need to support growth.”
  • In the Wall Street Journal, Madeleine Nissen and Paul Davies point to how negative interest rates are taking their toll on German insurance companies.
    • “German regulators are so concerned about the impact of negative interest rates on the country’s life insurers that they have said they can only be sure the sector is safe through 2018.”
    • “Some insurers need to earn a continuing investment yield of more than 5% to meet guarantees to their policy holders, a report from Germany’s central bank found in 2014.”
    • “What is dangerous is that the return on many investments is no longer reflective of the underlying risk involved. Many investors feel forced into taking higher risks.” – Nikolaus von Bomhard, chief executive of Munich Re
  • If you think it’s been hotter than usual.  You’re right.  As Tom Randall of Bloomberg illustrates, the Earth’s Temperature Just Shattered The Thermometer.
    • “The Earth is warming so fast that it’s surprising even the climate scientist who predicted this was coming.”
    • “Last month was the hottest March in 137 years of record keeping, according to data released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s the 1th consecutive month to set a new record, and it puts 2016 on course to set a third straight annual record.”
  • Turns out Millennials – like their predecessors before them – want to own their own home.  But, there is a ‘tiny’ problem for millennials living in the big cities.  The down payment.  As Catarina Saraiva of Bloomberg shows us, for many it will take years to save the down payment necessary to buy a home.
    • “Of the generation known for renting everything from designer handbags to desks in a shared office space, 79% say they want to purchase a home, according to a report published Wednesday by Apartment List, an online rental marketplace.”
    • In San Francisco, a 20% down payment on a median priced home equates to $142,800. “Surveyed millennials reported current savings at $14,469, monthly savings of $360 and help from outside sources of $8,264, on average. At that pace, it’ll take them nearly 28 years to save enough money for a down payment, even though 37% of millennials said they’re planning to buy between three and five years from now.”
  • It’s been tough to be a hedge fund lately.  Mary Childs and Lindsay Fortado of the Financial Times point out that $15bn has been pulled out from hedge funds by investors in the last quarter.
    • “Hedge funds have suffered their worst quarter in seven years after more than $15bn was pulled out by investors starting to fight back against the high fees being charged across the industry.”
    • “The total amount invested in hedge funds fell to $2.86tn in the first three months of the year, marking the first time since 2009 that the sector has faced two consecutive quarters of net outflows, according to data from Hedge Fund Research.”
    • But I wouldn’t go predicting the demise of hedge funds.  Ben Carlson of the blog A Wealth of Common Sense did a great job of explaining Why People Invest in Hedge Funds in October 2015.
  • Want to see what arbitrage looks like…Jacky Wong of the Wall Street Journal paints a picture with the reverse migration of many Chinese companies moving their public stock listings from Hong Kong to Mainland China.
    • “A reverse migration by Chinese companies from Hong Kong to mainland stock markets is under way. Juicy valuations are the main draw. But the winners are unlikely to be these companies’ current shareholders.”
    • “Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties, China’s largest shopping-mall owner, said last month its major shareholder is considering delisting the company from Hong Kong, less than two years after its initial public offering. The minimum takeout price is the same 48 Hong Kong dollars (US$6.19) a share that the company listed at in 2014. Meanwhile, a document sent to prospective investors on the mainland said Wanda expects its valuation to more than triple once it is relisted there.”

Special Reports

Graphics

WSJ – China’s Economy Faces Recovery Without Legs – Alex Frangos 4/15

WSJ_China Housing Starts_4-15-16

WSJ – Germany: Where Negative Rates Are Lethal – Madeleine Nissen and Paul J. Davies 4/14

WSJ_Negative yielding debt_4-14-16

WSJ – Why the Great Divide Is Growing Between Affordable and Expensive U.S. Cities – Laura Kusisto 4/18

WSJ_Home value divergence_4-18-16

ValueWalk – 98% of U.S. PE Funds Closed in 1Q Hit Or Exceeded Their Target 4/18

ValueWalk_98% of US PE Funds Hit Target_4-18-16

Bloomberg – It Could Take Years for Big-City Millennials to Save for a Down Payment – Catarina Saraiva 4/20

Bloomberg_Millennials saving for a home_4-20-16

WSJ – Upscale Shopping Centers Nudge Out Down-Market Malls – Suzanne Kapner 4/20

WSJ_Mall Valuations_4-20-16

FT – Beijing rent ranked world’s least affordable 4/20

FT_Beijing is least affordable city for rentals_4-20-16

WSJ – Chinese Reverse Migration Leaves Investors in the Cold – Jacky Wong 4/20

WSJ_Hong Kong v Mainland China listings_4-20-16

Featured

*Note: bold emphasis is mine, italic sections are from the articles.

Wall Street’s Oil Crash, a Story Told in Charts. Asjylyn Loder. Bloomberg. 15 Apr. 2016.

“JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., with a combined $190 billion in energy loan exposure, all announced this week that they’re setting aside more money to cover losses.”

Bloomberg_Bank Energy Exposure_4-15-16  

“Many independent drillers, the small producers that drove the shale boom, outspent cash flow even when oil was $100 a barrel, and made up the difference with bank-loans and high-yield bonds. Put simply: No banks, no boom.

Bloomberg_Shale Cash Shortage_4-15-16 

“Of the four big banks to report results this week, Wells Fargo has the biggest reported exposure to those sub-sectors, at about $14 billion, or 79% of their energy loans outstanding. The bank boosted loan-loss provisions for oil and gas to about $1.7 billion and reported net-charge offs of $204 million.”

Bloomberg_Shrinking credit lines_4-15-16

“Regulators and investors are pushing banks to limit their exposure to the industry. Since the start of the year, lenders have yanked $5.6 billion in credit from 36 oil and gas companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”

It’s All Suddenly Going Wrong in China’s $3 Trillion Bond Market. Bloomberg News. Bloomberg. 18 Apr. 2016.

This is a good follow up to the FT article from last week.

“The unprecedented boom in China’s $3 trillion corporate bond market is starting to unravel.”

“Spooked by a fresh wave of defaults at state-owned enterprises, investors in China’s yuan-denominated company notes have driven up yields for nine of the past 10 days and triggered the biggest selloff in onshore junk debt since 2014. Local issuers have canceled 60.6 billion yuan ($9.4 billion) of bond sales in April alone, while Standard & Poor’s is cutting its assessment of Chinese firms at a pace unseen since 2003.”

“Listed firms’ ability to service their debt has dropped to the lowest since at least 1992.”

“The spreading of credit risks is only at its early stage in China. Many people have turned bearish.” – Qiu Xinhong, a Shenzhen-based money manager at First State Cinda Fund Management Co.

“Economic figures for March reveal a growing dependence on debt. China’s aggregate financing – a broad measure of credit that includes corporate bonds – almost doubled from a year earlier to 2.34 trillion yuan, exceeding all 24 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey as policy makers turned on the taps to support economic growth.”

“The reaction has been swift in China’s 18.8 trillion yuan corporate bond market (a figure that excludes certificates of deposit). The extra yield investors demand to hold seven-year onshore corporate bonds with top ratings over similar-maturity government notes has jumped by 28 basis points from an almost nine-year low in January, to 91 basis points as of Monday.”

Still, very little yield premium compared to the spreads in developed markets.

“Analysts, meanwhile, are getting more downbeat. Twelve-month earnings forecasts for Shanghai Composite companies have dropped by 7.8% this year, the most since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P has cut its credit ratings or reduced its outlook on 63 Chinese companies this year while upgrading just two, on course for the highest annual ratio of downgrades to upgrades in 13 years.”

“Rising defaults are actually healthy for China’s bond market, said Xia Le, the chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Hong Kong.”

“It shows the government is taking away the implicit guarantee. Now risk awareness is rising, so we will see which issuers are swimming naked.” – Xia Le

Other Interesting Articles

The Economist

Bloomberg – America’s Wealth Effect From Rising Home Prices Has Been Cut in Half 4/21

CNBC – Miami real estate is melting down – Robert Frank 4/14

FT – US banks spell out toll of low oil prices 4/14

FT – Foreign governments up US Treasury holdings 4/15

FT – Defaults send chill through China’s bond market 4/15

FT – Will China transform the world’s energy market? 4/17

FT – China’s house prices surge as efforts to cool market fall flat 4/17

FT – Saudi warning on 9/11 law adds to US frictions 4/17

FT – Collapse of Doha talks highlight the rise of Mohammed bin Salman 4/18

FT – 1MDB dispute intensifies as Abu Dhabi ends relationship 4/18

FT – India knocks China from top of FDI league table 4/20

FT – China internet finance crackdown targets fly-by-night operators 4/20

National Real Estate Investor – Foreign Buyers of U.S. Real Estate: By the Numbers 4/14

NYT – Fight to Impeach Brazil’s Leader Tears at Fabric of Daily Life 4/15

NYT – As China’s Growth Slows, Banks Feel the Strain of Bad Debt 4/15

NYT – In Cramped and Costly Bay Area, Cries to Build, Baby, Build 4/16

NYT – Brazil’s Lower House of Congress Votes for Impeachment of Dilma Rousseff 4/17

Reuters – ‘Let them sell their summer homes’: NYC pension dumps hedge funds 4/14

ValueWalk – Is George Soros, 85, Looking For A Fight With China? 4/21

WSJ – How Housing Stacks Up on the Upper West Side 4/13

WSJ – Negative Rates Around the World: How One Danish Couple Gets Paid Interest on Their Mortgage 4/14

WSJ – Why the Great Divide Is Growing Between Affordable and Expensive U.S. Cities – Laura Kusisto 4/18

WSJ – Investors All Mixed Up About Chinese Property Bonds 4/19

WSJ – Negative Rates and Patches of Trouble for Japanese Insurers 4/21

 

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