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新年快乐
Xīnnián kuàilè
Perspective
WSJ – Daily Shot: Do You Live Among Millionaires? – Eric Morath 2/9
Worthy Insights / Opinion Pieces / Advice
FT – Five reasons why universal basic income is a bad idea – Ian Goldin 2/11
- “As the scale of the potential job losses arising from the artificial intelligence and robotics revolution becomes clearer, a chorus of otherwise disconnected billionaires, trade unionists and others are calling for universal basic income. Recognizing the threat posed by these dislocations is welcome and timely, but seeking solace in UBI is a bad idea.”
- “It is misleading to think of this as yet another industrial revolution and take comfort in the fact that all previous industrial revolutions have resulted in more and better-quality jobs. This time is different, both in the pace and the reach of change. The growth of new jobs is slower than the destruction of old jobs — and their quality in many cases is inferior, as full-time career employment gives way to gig work or contingency contracts.”
- “The places most vulnerable are also geographically isolated from the dynamic cities experiencing record earnings growth and low unemployment. Moving to these cities is increasingly difficult, as soaring housing and commuting costs reduce employment mobility. The result is rising geographical concentration of poverty and inequality in places left behind by change. The political reverberations are already being felt. The legitimate concerns of vulnerable workers must be addressed. But UBI is a red herring for five reasons.”
- Reasons 3 and 4:
- “Third, UBI will undermine social cohesion. Individuals gain not only income, but meaning, status, skills, networks and friendships through work. Delinking income and work, while rewarding people for staying at home, is what lies behind social decay. Crime, drugs, broken families and other socially destructive outcomes are more likely in places with high unemployment, as is evident in the drug pandemic in the US.”
- “Fourth, UBI undermines incentives to participate. Stronger safety nets are vital. No decent society should tolerate dire poverty or starvation. But for those who are able, help should be designed to get individuals and families to participate in society; to help people overcome unemployment and find work, retrain, move cities. Wherever possible, safety nets should be a lifeline towards meaningful work and participation in society, not a guarantee of a lifetime of dependence.”
FT – Where is the Tea Party when you need it? – Edward Luce 2/14
Project Syndicate – The Social Media Threat to Society and Security – George Soros 2/14
- “It takes significant effort to assert and defend what John Stuart Mill called the freedom of mind. And there is a real chance that, once lost, those who grow up in the digital age – in which the power to command and shape people’s attention is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few companies – will have difficulty regaining it.”
Markets / Economy
FT – Why the 30-hour work week is almost here – Simon Kuper 2/14
- “Qualified jobseekers are scarce. Finally, workers can make demands.”
Real Estate
WSJ – Mall Dividends Soar Above 15%, Tempting Big Investors – Esther Fung 2/13
- “Some mall operators are paying high dividends to offset the lackluster outlook for the sector.”
Finance
- “Harvard, Hawaii and others, pressed to improve returns, made risky bets that depended on low stock-market volatility.”
WSJ – Daily Shot: VIX index 2/14
- “VIX has finally moved below 20 as the inflation/high-rates ‘bogeyman’ no longer looks as scary (for now).”
Insurance
FT – MetLife hires investigators in search for missing pensioners – Alistair Gray 2/14
- “US insurer MetLife has hired investigators to track down thousands of pensioners as the company seeks to resolve a scandal over missing payouts that has wiped about $10bn off its market capitalization.”
- “Executives on Wednesday said they were doing ‘everything humanly possible’ to locate almost 13,500 people — owed on average $20,000 each — after they acknowledged MetLife failed to make proper efforts find them over 25 years.”
- “The failure arose because of practices dating back to the 1990s at MetLife’s pensions ‘risk transfer’ business, under which companies transfer their retirement liabilities to insurers.”
- “MetLife sought to contact eligible pensioners only twice: when they turned 65, and again a few months after the age of 70. If these efforts were unsuccessful, the company presumed the individuals would never be found.”
- “As a result, the insurer mistakenly released funds from reserves that support future annuity payouts.”
China
FT – Wanda’s hopes for global lifestyle empire fade as it beats retreat – Emily Feng 2/14
- “Dalian Wanda, the company Mr. Wang (Wang Jianlin) founded and transformed from a small-town real estate company into the world’s largest owner of cinemas and one of China’s biggest private property developers, has been steadily offloading assets over the past nine months.”
- “The latest divestment came on Wednesday, when Wanda announced it had agreed to sell its 17% stake in Spanish football club Atlético Madrid.”
- “The group says it will ‘refocus’ on its core business, domestic commercial property, including a plan to build or license 1,000 malls in China.”
- “This is a reversal for a group that invested roughly $22bn in offshore trophy assets over the past five years, according to data from Dealogic, as part of a push to bring a western lifestyle to an ever more wealthy Chinese middle class.”
- “In June 2017, the China Banking Regulatory Commission asked banks to examine loans to four companies known for offshore trophy investments, including Wanda, as Beijing pushed back on investments it deemed frivolous, excessive and out of line with the government’s development goals.”
- “Wanda has pivoted sharply since the June crackdown. The group has sold about $10.8bn of assets in the past nine months, according to data from Dealogic and an FT review of recent transactions.”
- “Debt pressures on Wanda are prompting the group to review its foreign investments, as Beijing’s capital controls restrict groups’ abilities to service their overseas liabilities.”
- “Wanda says it is in talks with the country’s foreign exchange regulator, which had approved offshore remittances to service its loans but suspended clearance after Beijing launched its probe into the companies’ liabilities.”
- “’The company’s financial resources — including cash proceeds from sales and cash balance — should be able to fulfil its onshore obligations. But the key now is how they can remit any onshore cash to offshore,’ says Dennis Lee, an associate director at rating agency S&P Global.”
- “Mr. Lee adds that the group’s need for offshore cash is prompting Wanda to consider its options, including the sale of overseas properties.”
- “The group also needs to maintain the confidence of investors. Total liabilities for Wanda were $11.7bn at the end of 2016, according to the group.”
- “The strategy may be less glamorous, but Wanda’s year-end numbers suggest that its asset-light strategy is paying off. Even as overall revenues for its main property subsidiary plummeted by more than a fifth to $17.8bn last year, its revenue from rental income grew by about a third to $4bn, according to its results in January.”
- “Despite the recent divestments, the group still retains its biggest offshore assets and Mr. Wang remains extraordinarily rich — Hurun estimates the wealth of Mr. Wang and his family at $23bn. Wanda is preparing for a Shanghai relisting of DWCP once its offshore debt is cleared, and that promises to be a major funding event.”
India
FT – Punjab National Bank discovers $1.8bn fraud in Mumbai branch – Simon Mundy 2/14
- “Scam resulted in money being advanced to a handful of accounts overseas.”